Sunday, May 29, 2011 - Day 6

Excited by yesterday's great Pick 5 value at Monmouth. Let's attack today's card with more back-up horses in level two and three. In race 9, 4th leg, scratch the 3, changing the expense. Now in race 10, top pick #8 is out. So, I have put up an all new box. The all Top Choice Pick 5 is only $18. Level two using one race's back-ups at a time increases the play to $81. At level three, with the double back-ups, the total cost goes up to $144.

Remember to visit HorseRacingNation.com/blogs/Monmouth to read my "Racing at the Jersey Shore" blog. HRN is an extensive website that offers insight into every aspect of racing. HRN is also a great source for data about horses, past and present. Click here or on the HRN logo in the right margin.

update - 6:58pm - 4 out of 5 in the pick 5, but we really missed on that 3rd leg. Only paid $195 this time with all winners paying below $8.40. The Place Pick 6 paid about the same amount. Tomorrow is a day off for me. Thanks for following, we will hit a good one soon!

Follow me on TWITTER @AndyScoggin.

New Blog on horseracingnation.com

Today was a beautiful, warm and breezy, day at Monmouth Park. The track was the last stop in my 10 year son’s birthday celebration which included gymnastics, delicious burgers at Bobby Flay’s Burger Palace, and water fun at the nearby Sprayground. We arrived at the track in time for today’s John J. Reilly Handicap. I could not miss seeing this showdown for the best New Jersey-breds.
read more

Saturday, May 28, 2011-Day 5

May, 28, 2011, is my son's 10th birthday, so this should be a lucky day. In the 50¢ Place Pick 6: 1, 6 with 1, 6 with 4, 7 with 6 with 2, 3, 9 with 8 for a total of $12.

For today's 50 ¢ Pick 5, there will be an all top choice ticket for $48 and a second ticket with one back-up that will cost an additional $16.
Today's 11th race is the John J. Reilly Handicap for New Jersey-breds. In the field are two of the top 10 earning Jersey-breds in history. Click on the HorseRacingNation.com icon in the right margin to go to my "Racing at the Jersey Shore" blog to find out more about the best NJ runners.

UPDATE - 7:01pm - Joey P. finished 11th and Who's the Cowboy 9th in the John J. Reilly H. The Pick 5 for 50¢, hard to believe, pays $622.35. The winners paid $4.80, $6.40, $5.80, $10.80, $3.00 and produce an IRS winner! WOW! We had 3 winners and 2 seconds. One second was a first timer in race 7 that got bet to 2.20-1, but it was the second leg. I didn't see if it got bet in the race 6 DD's. The value is definitely there!

Follow me on Twitter @AndyScoggin.

New Blog on horseracingnation.com

Two of the Top 10 New Jersey-breds to Run on Saturday

New Jersey-bred horses have had an impact at Monmouth Park and on the national racing scene for almost a century. Top New Jersey-breds have been conditioned by Hall of Fame trainers, won the Kentucky Derby, or were owned by celebrities. Three New Jersey-breds are in the racing Hall of Fame in Saratoga. Regret (left), the 1917 Kentucky Derby winning filly, joined the Hall of Fame in 1957. Cavalcade, who also won the Kentucky Derby in 1934, got in the Hall of Fame in 1993. read more

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Sorry that this is going up a bit late, but it was a busy weekend with work, family, and racing. Late's try the three prong approach to the pick 5 and I will give you a Place Pick 6 and hope for better prices today.In the 50¢ Place Pick 6, for only $16, let's try: 5, 7 with 4, 5 with 3 with 5, 8, with 6, 9, with 1, 3. Remember that starts in race 4. Good Luck.

7:03 pm-update-Wow, how about the 50 ¢ Place Pick 6 payout to one winner for $4,846.25? The Pick 5 paid $18,365.35. I guess our 3 out 5 doesn't seem so bad. I was hoping for a carryover.

Follow me on TWITTER @AndyScoggin.

Preakness Day at Monmouth Park

Saturday, May 21, 2011, is day 3 at Monmouth and the Preakness. So, let’s have some fun in both. For Monmouth’s very tough card I seek some inspiration from a favorite movie, The Sting (1973). Remember how Hooker and Gondorff make the sting on banker/gangster Doyle Lonnegan?

Doyle Lonnegan: I put it all on Lucky Dan; half a million dollars to win.

Kid Twist: To win? I said place! Place it on Lucky Dan! That horse is gonna run second today.

Thus, I am taking advice from Kid Twist and betting to place today. Let’s make a small play in the 50¢ Place Pick 6 that begins in race 4. Race 8 has already been taken off the turf and I have tried to predict the scratches. Total bet is $18: 6, 9, 11 with 1 with 8 with 1A (scratched), 2, 5 with 8, 10, 14 with 5 with 8. Let’s root for 1^st and 2^nd in the races where more then one horse has been selected and we will collect more than one winning ticket. Please check back tomorrow after scratches have been posted.

For the Preakness let’s try a $1 trifecta play. Total bet is $60: 9, 10, 11 with 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14 with 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14. Good Luck everyone. Have a great day of Racing at the Jersey Shore!

5:45 pm -Update- We have good news and bad news. We hit the Place Pick 6 TWICE and lost money. It paid $7.75 x 2 = $15.50, but we bet $18. It was fun, though. On to the Preakness. After 3 tries at the Place Pick 6 we are +$53.80, cashing in 2 out of 3.

7:45 pm -Update-How about Shackleford? Jesus Castanon slowed it down after the first quarter and they hung on to get the Woodlawn Vase! Remind me to tell you a great story about Castanon from when he was riding at Philadelphia Park.

Follow me on Twitter @AndyScoggin.

WOW! The Saturday Card at Monmouth Looks TOUGH!

WOW! The Saturday Card at Monmouth looks extremely tough. It might be a day to just dabble in the Place Pick 6. On the bright side (no weather pun intended), it looks like the rain might be finished. So, maybe there is a chance that there will be turf racing this weekend. Sunday, a trainer friend of mine has a horse in the 9th race. He has got a shot in there.

I'll be back with more definitive information on Friday evening. If you are handicapping Saturday's card , I'd love to hear your ideas.

WIn or Place?

A racetrack buddy of mine, Matt C., texted me after the races today, “Four out of five on a $3 ticket? Not a bad start to the season!”

He’s right, keeping in mind that caution was the order of the day at Monmouth, but we did miss leg 3 very badly. Monmouth does not have a consolation payout for four out of five.

I did hit the new Place Pick 6 today. How could I resist playing the new low takeout 50¢ wager at Monmouth? For a $12 bet I collected the $39.15 payout twice for a profit of $66.30. The question with the place pick 6 was: do you play a small ticket with fewer choices or a larger ticket hoping to hit both 1^st and 2^nd in a race? Hitting both win and place in a leg can lead to multiple winning tickets. First time, the pool was $15,229. When the pick 5 first started its pool size was similar.

Tomorrow, I have a theatre date with my wife, so I am not sure that I will have tickets up for Sunday. Also, there is a 90% chance of thunderstorms.

Opening Day at Monmouth Park

I love Monmouth Park, and tomorrow is Opening Day of the 2011 racing season. I love Opening Day because racing is back at the Jersey Shore and as a teacher the school year is coming to a close.

In the beginning of a Monmouth Park meeting it is important to err on the side of caution because, unlike other tracks, horses come from all over the country. On the first card there are horses whose last starts came at 10 different tracks. In the first two legs of the pick 5, two horses that I have included on tickets have not started since 2009. The second choice in race 10, the Decathlon, has not run since March 13, 2010.

So, my Pick 5 Picks are cautious and low budget. Top choices will cost you only $3. With one backup, the tickets total $19. For $64, I put all choices together in one “caveman” ticket. GOOD LUCK!

RECAP of Thursday's Hollywood Pick 5 Carryover

After an additional $800,000 was poured into the carryover pool at Hollywood Park on Thursday, there was a total of $907,116 up for grabs. The $800,000 was about $150,000 more than what was bet into the pick 6 carryover pot. The popularity of the pick 5 continues to grow.

It turned out to be another exciting pick 5 adventure for AndyScoggin. The all top choice ticket was alive going into the final leg with three horses. The two post time favorites were paying $827 and $1064 for the 50¢ wager and our third horse would have meant $2295. The super hard turf course had an uncovered runner go wire to wire. Thus, three consolation pay-offs brought back $57.90 total. So, that meant a $21.90 profit for the basic Pick 5 play.

I was particularly pleased about the decisions to leave two heavy favorites off of the tickets. In race two Moonstruck Maya gave up the lead in the stretch to one of our top choices. Big favorite Free From My Ex finished off the board in race four.

Monmouth opens Saturday with the low takeout pick 5 on races 6-10. A new place pick 6 starts on race 1 and will also have a 15% takeout. Who knows, we may dabble in the new wager. It will be interesting to see, what the payouts will be and how much interest it stirs up.

$107K Pick 5 Carryover at Hollywood Park, Thursday, May 12

There is a $107,474 carryover in the 50¢ pick 5 at Hollywood Park on Thursday, May 12, 2011. Let’s make a play even though I rarely bet the California tracks. The lure of the extra $107K, of which none is mine, is enough for me to give it a try.

You see my picks divided into three levels. The first is a basic play with only the top choices in each race. Second option is more expensive and extensive and includes the first ticket and then the top choices with one backup. Finally, you can try a play that includes the first two options and the top choices with two backups. Good luck!

Of course, Steven Crist is the creator of this method of playing the multi-race wagers. You should read more about it in his book, Exotic Betting.

Welcome to AndyScoggin's PICKING THE PICK 5

My fascination with the pick 5 began at the 2007 Breeders Cup at the Monmouth Park. That was the first time I had seen the 50 cent pick 5 offered. On that very rainy Friday, of the initial two day Breeders Cup, I played my first 5 race wager and hit for $207.80, which I thought was a decent payoff considering the chalky nature of the winners (four favorites below $6.00, and one for $12.80).

I frequently posted comments on busy blogs extolling the positives of the reduced takeout 50 cent pick 5 and hoped that the bet would return on a daily basis at Monmouth in 2008. To my delight it did return and I dabbled a bit that summer. In 2009, I really began picking the pick 5. I ended up cashing 5 times, with four small payouts below $250 and one IRS number over $1500. This produced a positive ROI for the meeting.

There is nothing quite like the thrill of being alive in the pick 5 going into the final leg. In his 2009 DRF DVD, Exotic Tickets, Steven Crist talks about the excitement. “No matter how good you are at them, playing bets like the pick 4 or pick 6 can really be like riding a roller coaster. You can go weeks, maybe even months, without making a big score.” The 2010 summer at Monmouth had me on the most exhilerating of handicapping rides. There were two IRS cashes over $1200 and two excruciating photo finishes on consecutive Fridays in July.

Needless to say the pick 5 has exploded in popularity from Gulfstream to Hollywood Park and the 50 cent wager has transformed pick 4’s everywhere. Even NYRA tracks have started taking the lower base bets on their pick 4.

Beginning May 14, I will share my pick 5 choices in this blog, http://andyscoggin.blogspot.com. My wagers will be structured in three levels to fit smaller budgets with top choices to more complex plays with multiple backup choices. I will write about multi-race wagering, specifically at Monmouth. Look for “Picking the Pick 5”.