Friday, September 9, 2011

Day 52 - Saturday, September 10, 2011

Remember there is a $5,092 Place Pick 6 carryover. Last time over $25,000 was bet into the Place Pick 6 carryover pool of $8,000 and produced a pay out of $86.25. Once again I am hoping to get my money back from this Saturday's carryover pool.

The featured race is The Mongo Queen which is a six furlong stake for fillies and mares. Mongo Queen won the 1978 grade one Sorority and the Colleen for two year-olds at Monmouth Park. For her career the West Virginia-bred won $277,837 with 8-13-6 results in 40 starts.

FINAL UPDATE - Saturday 1:35pm - Final Place Pick 6 Ticket for $36: 1,8 with 2,3,5 with 3,9 with 6 with 1,8 with 2,4,5.

In the Pick 5 here is the $81 ticket.
Update-9:30am -
Races are OFF the turf
, that means race 6 in our sequences. I am going to assume that top choices 3,5,6 will scratch. There will be one Top Choices only ticket for the Pick costing $54.
In the carryover Place Pick 6 here are two options. The standard $36 ticket: 3,4,8 with 2,5 with 13,14 with 6 with 1,8 with 2,4,5 or a larger $81 ticket: 3,4,8 with 2,3,5 with 13,14 with 6 with 1,6,8 with 2,4,5.

Look to see if there are any other scratches. I will not be able to post any other changes until around 2pm. GOOD LUCK!

SATURDAY ANALYSIS: posted Friday evening - Assumes races will be ON the turf.

Race 4
- Is #1 Sandy Key Gal going to finally run an untroubled race. Recent effort in speedy turf race was better than it appears. #3 Brown Eyed Nance comes out of the same race as #1. Trainer is 25% on turf to dirt. Was not bet at all in the first start. Good first start at 6.20-1 behind a repeat winner for #4 Last Minute Rose. #8 Sweet Moonbeam did not like the turf last race and had a difficult trip the race before that. Wire to wire?

Race 5 - #2 Jax Maxx almost always runs a good race. Last race was against a very tough bunch of J-breds. #3 Wing Glider is another competitor that finished second in a N3L beating a horse that came back to win. #5 Unleash the Humor has been running the best BSFs and is always in the thick of it. Claimed his last two races.

Race 6 - is filled with horses who have run well on the turf but don't seem to want to win: #5 Concorde County has three seconds in six starts, #6 Raging Rozea three seconds in 7 tries, #8 Scappare finished third three times in 8 races, #11 Key to the Empire 6 money finishes, and #14 Doodleman 2 seconds and 2 fourths in 6 tries. S0 that leads us to #3 Manresa Road won ran a close third in a very fast 7F turf race at Bel in July. Irish bred owned by the Tabor gang was no doubt sent to the US to run on lasix. Figures to be a big favorite, but a likely winner. Out of the above group #6 will be used in the Place Pick 6 to be second again!

Race 7 - A NW1 allowance filled with front runners and a few reluctant winners. #6 Champagne Run is trained by Steve Asmussen and gets Elvis Trujillo. Horse has the best BSF and the most class coming off a good 2nd place going 7F at SAR. She had the best maiden win against a comeback winner. Narrowly lost to Cascadilla Falls in her first start. C. Falls had a great SAR meet. Want to see the #6 stalk the speed and go by the tiring horses.

Race 8 - #8 Unwritten was claimed three races ago and came back to win a non J-bred beaten claimer and then ran a good 4th in a tough open conditional NW2 claimer. Now drops back into a J-bred race. Last year he dominated the state bred stakes at MTH. #1 Quepos will come charging as always. Last race was a mile which he doesn't prefer and now cuts back to 6F. He hasn't won in two years. Is today the day? #6 Cause I Can has been away since March. Three starts this year were against much better and two were on turf which he does not like. He ran well against J-breds last summer. A threat if ready.

Race 9 - #2 Golden Mystery moved to the barn of JC Guerrero from Marty Wolfson. I am not a big fan of Wolfson, although many are huge supporters. Guerrero's first time and layoff stats are superlative. #4 Hour Glass was very competitive in graded sprints last year. Her best should win here. Trujillo for Pletcher is 3 out of 4 with a crazy ROI of $6.20! #5 D'cats Meow is trained by the super hot conditioner Jane Cibelli. Her horses have been stringing together three, four wins off of claims. #5 is another one of them.

Race 10 - #1 Mo's Mini Skirt finished second going a mile 70 and the third place finisher came back to win. Puts blinkers on. #3 Nen's Chocolate gets a favorable jockey change from a third place finish. Trainer Pierce has been doing well lately and could improve to win this. #8 Miss Bar A is chosen by Mangalee off of a front running second place over the #3. Wire to wire here?

Check back on Saturday morning for the Place Pick 6 and Pick 5 tickets!

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