Saturday, July 30, 2011
Pick 5: 2 with 1,3,7 with 2,8,10 with 2,8,9 with 3,8.
Place Pick 6: this is a huge ticket that I will let you trim as you please, but the payoffs have been enormous the past several days, so I may really go after it today. (2),5,9 with 2,3,4,7 with 2,8 with 1,(3),7 with 2,8,10 with 2,8,9.
Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey and Janine Edwards, both members of the ABC team spent a lot of time talking with Trainer Dale Romans as they watched Shackleford prance around the saddling area.
I will be heading to Monmouth early tomorrow to go the stable area first, in hopes of seeing some of the other Haskell starters. High on my list is Bob Baffert and his runner, Coil.
See you there. I will try and TWEET @AndyScoggin and post photos from The Haskell.
Friday, July 29, 2011
RACE 6: The Pick 5 starts with an overnight stake for turf sprinters. 1) Tiger Cat Lilly - trained by Michael Pino who is winning at 60% with his Mth shippers. Great win in NW1 off layoff. 2) Holding For Kitten - ran two big races including a stake before shipping to the Royal Ascot meeting for Wesley Ward, who is winning at 42% at Mth. 5) Cascadilla Falls - Last two races were super for Bill Mott, super fast filly.
RACE 7: MSW where I am completely unimpressed with most of them. A bunch of horses who have shown that they don't want to win and now some of them are being switched turf to dirt, out of desperation. I will let them beat me. Two horses come out of a very fast sprint at Mth on July 10. I think they both could beat this group. 8) Solid Guy - Sacco put blinkers on and 9) Alke John - trained by Broome who is 25% with 2nd start Mdn.
RACE 8: A very tough open claimer on the turf. I will use 5 horses. 1) Virsito - nice race last out at Bel for Goldberg, who could have a big day today. 3) High Aspirations - throw out that last race, the two prior races are good enough to win here. 4) Tangled Tango - First off the claim. He is in great form now. 7) Shipwreckstreasure - has the speed in here. 10) Empty Handed - Don't know what happened last race, but the one before will win here.
RACE 9: NJ bred starter allowance where again I don't like the usual suspects and I will go with the two outsiders. 9) Developing Story - Wesley Ward, her Beyers are way better than the rest. Is dirt her best surface? 8) - Splendored Thing - His two past Jersey bred races could win here. 2) Double Desert - is the best of the regulars.
RACE 10: I will single the 4) Nefertini. I saw her first time win and the 61 Beyer does not fit the impressiveness of her race. She destroyed that race with a tremendous burst of speed and then coasted home for the final sixteenth. This could be a good one for Goldberg. She was bet down to 8-5 at Prx.Place Pick 6: 3,4,9 with 1,6 with 1,2,5 with 1,8 with 4,7 with 9 for $36. GOOD LUCK!
UPDATE-7:20pm- Races came off of the turf and our plays were scratched!
Let me know if you are going to the HASKELL, so we can meet up. Leave a comment here or TWEET me @AndyScoggin.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
5-2 Morning line favorite and Preakness winner, Shackleford, in his Monmouth stall late this morning after eating his lunch. Trainer Dale Romans said, "We’ll just let him run, and if he goes to the lead fine, and if somebody wants to gun, we’ll just sit right off of them."
That's my post position draw sheet filled out with Brad Thomas' morning line odds. Bob Baffert's Coil is the second choice at 3-1. Baffert is 4 for 4 with his Haskell entrants since winning with Point Given in 2001. He gave Coil the following evaluation, "He's trained really well, I think he's going to run a big race, and we're going to find out how good he is. Does he want to go a mile and an eighth or is it too far for him?"
I got to eat lunch with Ray Kerrison, the veteran racing reporter for the NY Post, and his wife. We talked about Monmouth and Saratoga and I asked him who is his favorite horse of all time? Kerrison said that it is 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew because he had a unique spirit and energy.
Who is going to get the $600,000 winner's share of the purse and the Haskell trophy? There is a lot of speed in the race and that should set up for a closer, but Shackleford turned away all challenges in the Preakness. Monmouth is a track he should like and he is well rested. However, it is hard to go against Baffert in the Haskell. Pants On Fire has home field advantage and could offer good betting value if near his 4-1 ML odds.
Best of all, I already got my Haskell Hat, actually I got two of them. Is there anything to the resemblance between the hat logo and the silks of last year's winner Lookin At Lucky and this year's Mike Pegram owned Coil? Hmmm.
All in all it was a great day at the track for AndyScoggin.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
HorseRacingNation.com has all the Haskell coverage that you will need. Today a Haskell v. Travers debate was posted. I wrote the Haskell point of view, so join in and give our NJ race all the support it deserves. HorseRacingNation.com
Thursday at noon I will be live TWEETING @AndyScoggin from the Haskell Press Conference. Find out the post position draw as it happens and then any interesting comments from the connections of the entrants.Sunday will be a great day of racing and you get you Haskell Hat with paid grandstand admission. Let me know if you will be at the track, so we can meet up!
Monday, July 25, 2011
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Haskell week is going to be exciting for me. Monday I will have another article posted on HorseRacingNation.com: "The Haskell: Where Champions Prove Their Greatness". I will also be at Monmouth for the races on Monday. Thursday I will be live tweeting from the Haskell Post Position Draw and Press Conference. I will tweet the draw right as it happens and then comments from the trainers and owners.
So make sure you follow me at TWITTER @AndyScoggin for all of the fun.
I might squeeze in a visit to the backside for Haskell workouts, plus I'd really like to meet Bob Baffert!
Then Sunday I get to attend The Haskell as a member of the press!
Update--We were 3 out of 5, but the pick 5 paid over $5,000. In the other two races we had an 11-1 and a 7-1 run second. Not too bad!
Remember tomorrow, Monday, Monmouth runs the postponed Friday card of Day 30. Those picks are still up. Who knows what the scratch situation will be.
Friday, July 22, 2011
It is getting late on Friday evening and I have not received any notification about racing being cancelled at Monmouth on Saturday. I am going to post a preliminary Pick 5 ticket that may need to be modified tomorrow.
In the Place Pick 6: 4,6,8 with 1/1A with 1,3,7 with 1,6 with 2,6 with 3,5 for $36.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Let's try the detailed analysis for the Pick 5. I find this card perplexing, so If I play the Pick 5 it will be lightly. Plus it is opening day at Saratoga and the card there is great.
Race 6 - The most perplexing of all the legs, it is one of those races where you feel like none of them should win! #2 Bermuda - 1st race back from layoff was bad. Last year he was running against better and his July 30 win is good enough in here. #1 Laguna Moon - Last race was good enough to win this race. #6 Stroll for Acure - His win at Colonial looks good, but how often does one like this repeat and win at the next condition? #1A Ready to Play - He ran well against better in the past, can he make another successful comeback?
Race 7 - Maiden 2YO Jersey breds with many making first start. #1/1A entry two first timers that could have some run. #6 Deliburnsky - Very nice first race in open company followed by good work. Favorite.
Race 8 - Be sure to refer to earlier blog: Handicapping Tip #1. 3YO's have a big advantage especially when they had considerable success. #1 Hihopesmptypockets - May have seconditis, especially at Mth. #3 Crafty Concorde - scratched to go in here. May get loose on the lead. Trujillo gets off. #5 Bold Intention - Throw out last two races: stuck and turf. Maiden win was ok, blinkers on, not excited with jockey. #6 Value Added Tax - definite case of seconditis. #7 Key to a Cure - Horse is a winner, 5 wins already and only a 3YO. #8 My Man Marty - Ran well against much better last year. Shows great works for good layoff trainer.
Race 9 - #1 Ducduc - 5 great races in FL for this winner! #2 Lighthouse Sound - His last may be good enough to win this. #6 Round Trip Loner - Throw out his last race and he is 1 for 1 on the turf. Speedy.
Race 10 - #3 Who's the Cowboy - the 9YO goes for $1,000,000 today. He needs a third place finish and I hope they take care of him! The new rider for Japan is up! His last race was much better. #4 Timeless Classic - Last race was a disappointment. He could rebound. #9 Joe Bagadonuts - Last at Parx was good and now in a state bred race. You might ask how can a PA bred run in this race? He has a NJ sire and he was born in PA. #10 Uncle Otto - He has run against much better all through his career including the open SpendABuck 2 races ago. This could be the perfect spot. #11 Billysbenormal is the outsider who has been running really well, but is he good enough here?
Thursday - Here is an early posting of a small Pick 5 play, only $48.
In the Place Pick 6, where we need to get a winner, we are only spending $24: 4,5,9,11 with 1,5 with 1 with 1,6 with 3,6,8 with 1. I plan on being at Monmouth Friday, so I will give live updates and make any after scratch changes if needed.
If you are at the track, TWEET me @AndyScoggin or post a comment on the blog and we can meet up.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
When horses are coming from races with many different conditions I like to compare the level at which they broke their maiden and the BSF in that win. I use this especially in N2L, N3L, and beaten claimers where they usually don’t have many wins. This gives a type of class comparison. Like in the upcoming race 8 for Friday, July, 22, at Monmouth, which is a beaten 16,000 claimer for 3YO or N2L, Clm 16000 (16-14)B. That condition means that the 3YO's are allowed in with any number of wins, but the older horses can have only that one maiden win. That can mean that an experienced 3YO can have an edge in "beaten" claimers.
Remember, it is just one piece of information. What has the horse done since that maiden victory?
Hihopesmptypockets – Pen Md 12000 - BSF 39
Minute – Pha Md 12500 - 62
Crafty Concorde - Mth State-bred Md 10000 - 51
Narbona Pass – Pha Md40000 - 66
Bold Intention – Pha Md40000 - 56
Value Added Tax – Crc MSW - 72
Key to a Cure – Del Md20000 - 54
My Man Marty - Tam Md75000 - 66
Jack's Soul – FG Md15000 - 63
A good horse racing library is required to become well informed. Here are some of the titles that I feel are essential to your book collection. Read the rest of the HorseRacingNation blog.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
One thing I find troubling is the influx of horses since CD closed, how will their form translate to Monmouth? Just what we need something else to make it tougher to handicap.
Let me know what you think before I post my play.
Race 6 - 2 Sea Gaze-Steve Asmussen from CD. Third race after a layoff after a solid second in a good time with 78 fig. 4 Pampered Sir-Great race after a long layoff in a stuck race (carded for turf but taken off) earned a big 81 fig in the mud, but has not won in the last 2 years! 5 Itsagoodtendollars-Throw out last 2 turf races. Trainer is .30 on turf to dirt angle. Dirt races at AQU were very good. Scott Volk is unpredictable. 6-Duffy's Tavern-loves Mth. Three great races off layoff. Trainer is an acquaintance of mine and is red hot!
Race 7 - 4-Immaculate Cat-Owned by Bobby Flay, so maybe have a burger with him at Bobby's Burger Palace a couple miles up Rt.36 from Mth. Two very good second places. Other two contenders have speed and she should have a perfect set-up here. Does she have seconditis? 6-Holmedancer and 7-Donya have speed and the same 67 fig in last race although I think Donya is faster, but Holmedancer drops from MSW.
Race 8 - 1A-Tricky Chickie-3 very good races in 3 career starts with last 2 races off a layoff, would like to have seen more improvement in figs from 2YO season. 8-Ima Jersey Girl-Great stalking race in the Mth mud off a layoff. Top fig of 71.
Race 9 - 1-Valerius- From CD now trained by Mth conditioner. Two great races at CD. 2 for 2 at this distance. 2-Who We Gonna Call-Outsider from Fort Erie in Canada. I love to bet outsiders. Strong last race, gets DeCarlo who is a very selective rider. Last year ran in the first 2 legs of the Canada Triple Crown. 3-Red Leader-trained by Rudy Rodriguez from NY who is always dangerous. 4-Gunfighter-ran a huge race in a tough Jersey bred stake. 5-Shenanigans-Pletcher trained 6 for 6 at Mth with 3 wins. 7-Primary Witness-loves Mth, last two races strong, switch to Lopez will help.
Race 10 - 2-Miss Nepal-4 for 4 wins in 2011 with last 2 at Mth. How long can she keep winning? 3-Maddie's Odyssey-Throw out last race on the mud. Race before was good. 6-Justaroundmidnight-Huge drop down. She should be much better than these. Bravo up!
SUNDAY -7:59am-Place Pick 6 ticket: 2,3,10 with 1,8 with 2,4,6 with 4 with 1A,8 with 4,7. Cost is $36.
For the Pick 5 I am posting 3 separate Top Choice tickets that have some overlap. Think about them.
Significant early scratches: #6 in race 6 and #1,2 in race 9. Place Pick 6: 2,3,10 with 1,8 with 2,4,5 with 4 with 1A,8 with 4,7. Cost is $36. Final Pick 5 ticket is below.
6:10pm-update-That's better, we cashed in the Pick 5 for $448.95, although the game second place horse in the last leg would have brought in $1,639. We should have had the Pick 6, too, except our single in the fourth leg was a late scratch and we got put on a bad favorite that managed to finish third. We had an exacta in the third leg and went 5 out of 6. It paid $77.70. All in all a good day.
THANKS for the comments, Connelly and insomnia. Did you like the detailed analysis?
GOOD LUCK, today!
The Pick 5 paid $81,000 today. I assume only one winning 50¢ ticket. As Jeff Probst of Survivor always says, "Worth playing for?"
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Friday, July 15, 2011 - The final Harry Potter movie is out, so I will be at a 10:30am showing and will not be able to update these picks until near the start of the wagers. I will update when I get to Monmouth. Race 10, the last leg of the Pick 5, I like the #11 (AE). I have not included 11 in the tickets. If #11 draws in we would want to include the horse.In the 50¢ Place Pick 6: 5,8,9 with 7,8 with 4,7 with 4,6,7 with 3 with 1,4. That is a $36 play.
2:35pm-update-I just arrived after the Harry Potter finale. It was great!!!!!! On the racing front the #7 scratches out of race 6, so in the Place Pick 6 I substituted the #1. I will be back with an update on my Pick 5 play.
3:00pm-update-Third place in leg 2 of Place Pick 6. I am posting an alternate All Top Choice ticket for the Pick 5 with a cost of $72. We had 2 backup horses and a top choice scratch.
3:25pm-update-That's the way to start the Pick 5 with a 14-1 Top Choice!
4:20pm-update-Still alive in Pick 5 to 1,5,8 with 5,10. Only one favorite in the first 3 legs. Caffe D'Oro goes :54-2 for 5 furlongs on the turf to set a new track record.
5:20pm-update-Fourth leg our 9-1 shot (the #1) loses a photo by a nose (see below) to an 8-1 shot and when the 4/5 favorite wins the last leg the Pick 5 pays $4673.10. So if we had won that photo it would have paid around that same amount for 50¢. ARGHHHH!
Monday, July 11, 2011
Join the discussion and post a comment on HRN.com. There is so much to learn about horse racing there.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
In the 50¢ Place Pick 6: 6,8 (1A) with 1,2,3 with 3,4,6 with 3 with 8,9 with 2,7 for $36.
evening update-No excuses for leaving the 5 horse out of leg 2 in the pick 5. That Pletcher maiden smoked the field. I didn't like the short price that the horse was going to bring, but when I saw him before the race I knew we were in trouble! Our all Top Choice ticket went 4 out of 5. The winning Pick 5 paid $300 thanks to the carryover.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
The 50¢ Place Pick 6 is: 6,8,9 with 5,7 with 5 with 4,5 with 1,7 with 1,9,10 and a total ticket of $36.
5:40pm-update-PICK 5 CARRYOVER for Sunday of $48,448.75. That makes up for today's horrible performance. Let's get serious! I am alive to 2 horses in the late Pick 4 at BEL. That would fund tomorrow's Pick 5 nicely! Got it, with the bigger payout of $382.72. I love the 50¢ wagers!
REMEMBER to keep up with all of the racing news and talk. Go to http://www.horseracingnation.com/ . Read my "Racing at the Jersey Shore" blog there, too.
TWITTER @AndyScoggin and @HR_Nation.
Friday, July 8, 2011
One ticket for the Pick 5 with a cost of $72.
Good luck. We are due to cash one today.
2:25pm-update-Great start in the Place Pick 6 where we caught a first leg exacta with both the 5 and 9 placing. That means that if we survive the whole way we will have 2 winning tickets! The AE 10 did not make the race so we used the 9 horse.
3:55pm-update-Good news we are alive in both the Pick 5 and Pick 6, but all races have come off the turf which means those races become ALL bets, meaning all horses count as a win. Obviously that reduces the payouts. In the Pick 6, leg 5 is ALL and we have the 1,2,3 in the last leg. In the Pick 5, legs 3 and 5 are ALL and we have 2,3,4 in leg 4.
6:03-update-What a strange day. It turns out we hit both the Pick 5 and Place Pick 6. The Place Pick 6 paid $40.50, but we had it twice for a collect of $81 - $36 = $45 profit. The pick 5 included 2 ALL legs in which we had 2 tickets each. The 3/4/ALL/2/ALL paid $71.30, but we had it 4 times for $285.20 - $72 - $213.20 profit.
AndyScoggin also had the Early Pick 4. I guess that means that today AndyScoggin hit the Pick 4, Pick 5, and Pick 6. I should have bet the Pick 3! LOL!
It was an unusual day for multirace wagering at Monmouth today.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Here is the 50¢ Pick 5 with the same concern about race 6, the first leg, so I offer you two options. The first uses only 2 horses in the first leg and the second option spreads over 5 in that race.
Today we call on another of my UConn favorites for good luck on Day 23, Miss Maya Moore. The greatest of all Huskies!
update - 4 out of 6 in the Pick 6. In the Pick 5, I must admit that when I got to the track and found out the front runners were having a hard time that I tweeked my ticket in the second leg by switching the 5 in for the 6. This got me alive to our three horses to hit a payoff of $520, $590, or $1,200. Nothing more exciting then be alive to the last leg. How frustrating then, that the 1 and 8 finished second and third to the front running 16-1 sprinter who was left to lope along by the other speed horses. They all expected that horse to come back to them, but after a 1:14 beginning it did not happen. I can't tell you how many times that has happened to me! Arrrrgh!
Sunday, July 3, 2011
The "22" photo is Ashley Battle, one of my favorite women's basketball players, when she was with the NY Liberty, and today race 10 is the Miss Liberty Stakes. So, a little extra luck maybe.
6:15pm-update-I was correct about a couple of things. The races did come off the turf and that eliminated our play with the first leg having been carded for the turf. Also using 3 horses in the last leg did get an exacta, so we could have had two winning tickets. We did hit a couple of the races with the other horse being at big odds. Once again the Place Pick 6 paid over $100 for a 50¢ wager.
Day 23 is tomorrow, the 4th of July. I am guessing that there will be no turf racing, as the rain has lingered much longer than was expected. A wet main track would be good for our friend Pinelands Pete, who is entered in the 7th race.
TWITTER @AndyScoggin and @HR_Nation
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Ok, here is a bit of a rushed 50¢ Place Pick 6, on a very competitive day at Monmouth. It is also Beach Mat Giveaway Day with a paid grandstand admission. I found no singles in the sequence so that play is $48, which is above the usual cutoff of $36.
3,5,9 with 5,8 with 5,7 with 5,6 with 5,7 with 3,7
Maybe we should throw the 5 in the last leg so we could play 5/5/5/5/5/5 or play a 5/5/5/5/5/5,3,7. LOL!
10:15pm - update - 4 out of 6 today. The Pick 6 had another healthy payout! Tomorrow's another day. Overall stats for the Pick 6 have been revised in the right margin.
HorseRacingNation.com picked Flat Out, 13-1 winner of the Suburban Handicap at BEL. It is a great interactive website where the readers are encouraged to be involved.
Follow @HR_Nation and @AndyScoggin on TWITTER.
Friday, July 1, 2011
I just started handicapping the exciting Day 21 card for Saturday, July 2, that includes the G3 Salvatore Mile and the turf G1 United Nations Stakes. Races 9-12 include a $100,000 guaranteed 50¢ Pick 4.