Saturday, July 16, 2011

Day 29 - Sunday, July 17, 2011

Let's try something different. I am posting my early thoughts about the Pick 5 races. Let me know what you think and then I'll make tickets tomorrow.

One thing I find troubling is the influx of horses since CD closed, how will their form translate to Monmouth? Just what we need something else to make it tougher to handicap.

Let me know what you think before I post my play.

Race 6 - 2 Sea Gaze-Steve Asmussen from CD. Third race after a layoff after a solid second in a good time with 78 fig. 4 Pampered Sir-Great race after a long layoff in a stuck race (carded for turf but taken off) earned a big 81 fig in the mud, but has not won in the last 2 years! 5 Itsagoodtendollars-Throw out last 2 turf races. Trainer is .30 on turf to dirt angle. Dirt races at AQU were very good. Scott Volk is unpredictable. 6-Duffy's Tavern-loves Mth. Three great races off layoff. Trainer is an acquaintance of mine and is red hot!

Race 7 - 4-Immaculate Cat-Owned by Bobby Flay, so maybe have a burger with him at Bobby's Burger Palace a couple miles up Rt.36 from Mth. Two very good second places. Other two contenders have speed and she should have a perfect set-up here. Does she have seconditis? 6-Holmedancer and 7-Donya have speed and the same 67 fig in last race although I think Donya is faster, but Holmedancer drops from MSW.

Race 8 - 1A-Tricky Chickie-3 very good races in 3 career starts with last 2 races off a layoff, would like to have seen more improvement in figs from 2YO season. 8-Ima Jersey Girl-Great stalking race in the Mth mud off a layoff. Top fig of 71.

Race 9 - 1-Valerius- From CD now trained by Mth conditioner. Two great races at CD. 2 for 2 at this distance. 2-Who We Gonna Call-Outsider from Fort Erie in Canada. I love to bet outsiders. Strong last race, gets DeCarlo who is a very selective rider. Last year ran in the first 2 legs of the Canada Triple Crown. 3-Red Leader-trained by Rudy Rodriguez from NY who is always dangerous. 4-Gunfighter-ran a huge race in a tough Jersey bred stake. 5-Shenanigans-Pletcher trained 6 for 6 at Mth with 3 wins. 7-Primary Witness-loves Mth, last two races strong, switch to Lopez will help.

Race 10 - 2-Miss Nepal-4 for 4 wins in 2011 with last 2 at Mth. How long can she keep winning? 3-Maddie's Odyssey-Throw out last race on the mud. Race before was good. 6-Justaroundmidnight-Huge drop down. She should be much better than these. Bravo up!

SUNDAY -7:59am-Place Pick 6 ticket: 2,3,10 with 1,8 with 2,4,6 with 4 with 1A,8 with 4,7. Cost is $36.

For the Pick 5 I am posting 3 separate Top C
hoice tickets that have some overlap. Think about them.

Significant early scratches: #6 in race 6 and #1,2 in race 9. Place Pick 6:
2,3,10 with 1,8 with 2,4,5 with 4 with 1A,8 with 4,7. Cost is $36. Final Pick 5 ticket is below.
6:10pm-update-That's better, we cashed in the Pick 5 for $448.95, although the game second place horse in the last leg would have brought in $1,639. We should have had the Pick 6, too, except our single in the fourth leg was a late scratch and we got put on a bad favorite that managed to finish third. We had an exacta in the third leg and went 5 out of 6. It paid $77.70. All in all a good day.

THANKS for the comments, Connelly and insomnia. Did you like the detailed analysis?


  1. I like this way of posting your picks, though it obviously would take much more work to get this up early, is great. I looked at a program for the first time this season and, as always, your analysis seems top notch.

    I think race 7 (leg 2) is the hardest race; I don't see the 6 or 7 winning. I plan to play small in this leg with the 4 and (maybe) the 2 here.

    I think Key Appeal (6) should be included in race 8--has done well with this jockey at this track.

    In race 9 I also plan to tighten things up; I don't see the 1 or 3 winning here. Maybe a co-investor can convince me otherwise!

    And in race 10, I think the 6 is a lock to win, though I would be willing to include the 2.

    My caveman is 2,5,6 / 2,4 / 1A,6,8 / 2,4,5 / 2,6.
    108 bets for $54. Would be willing to single the 6 in the final leg for half the price ($27).

  2. Im going to try this one:

    2,4,5/2,4/1,5,6,8/4-7/6 for $48.00

    Come on.... Sorry about that photo. I still would not be over it ;) Would have been awesome to hit.

  3. NIce work on the pick 5!!! Damn it I had to leave the #7 out...

  4. Thanks insomnia! I guess I am over that photo now, although the #2, who finished second and had a rough trip in the last leg today, would have paid $1600!

  5. yes, i liked the detailed analysis.... Keep up the good work. Do you ever play any pick6 at belmont or other tracks or do you stay away from the 2.00 pick 6 tix?

  6. I don't have the bankroll to play a $2 Pick 6. I do play the pick 4's at the NY tracks. The low takeout is important when you play these wagers regularly. Saving 10% over time adds up!

    Talk to you later this week. I hope you visit,too.